来自China Economic Review（CER）推送公众号。原文链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0oof4y1Mx4gfKzZMK69-FQ

出口目的地与污染减排：来自中国企业的理论与证据

原创 黄耿等 CER推送 2025年05月13日 09:03 新加坡

感谢关注China Economic Review（CER）推送公众号。CER作为一本聚焦中国经济及其与世界经济关系的原创研究成果的期刊，在经济学和金融学类期刊中获得稳步提升的影响力。

CER推送作为作者与读者的沟通平台，将定期介绍发表于CER上的文章。本次推送将介绍黄耿、林熙和何凌云于2025年发表在CER上的文章Export destinations and pollution reduction: Theory and evidence from Chinese enterprises。

Recently, there has been growing interest in exploring how trade affects environmental outcomes. Much of existing analyses exploring connection between trade and environmental results often adopts a simplistic classification, dividing trade into exports and imports. This approach tends to overlook the complex variety of trading partners involved. However, in light of ongoing global crises and the shifting dynamics of international trade, existing theories require refinement to more effectively predict how trade with different partners impacts the environment.近年来，关于贸易如何影响环境结果的研究兴趣日益增增多。但现有文献往往将贸易简单地划分为进口与出口，忽视了出口目的地的异质性。然而，面对持续的国际贸易格局的不断演变，现有理论亟需完善，以更有效地预测与不同贸易伙伴开展贸易对环境所带来的影响。To investigate how export markets impact emission levels, we develop a microeconomic theoretical framework and then proceed with an empirical analysis using data from Chinese enterprises. Our results suggest that environmental impact of exports varies based upon the destination country. Exporting to both high-tech and low-tech nations contributes to decrease of emission intensity, and effect is more significant when enterprises engage in trade with high-tech countries. Additionally, while the expansion of production scale post-export can drive an increase in total emissions, this effect is mitigated by improvements in productivity and rising abatement costs. As a result, the overall emissions from firms show little variation, regardless of whether their exports are directed to high-tech or low-tech nations.为研究出口市场如何影响排放水平，本文构建了一个微观层面的理论模型，并采用中国企业的微观数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明，出口对环境的影响因目的地国家不同而异。无论是出口至高技术国家还是低技术国家，企业的排放强度都有所下降，且与高技术国家开展贸易时这种减排效果更加显著。尽管出口后企业生产规模扩大可能带来总排放量的上升，但这一效应在生产率提升和减排成本上升的共同作用下被部分抵消。因此，从整体看，企业的总排放量在出口至高技术或低技术国家时并无显著差异。Our research offers some important contributions to extant analyses on trade's environmental influence. First, our analysis provides strong evidence that the role of export destinations in influencing pollution emissions is crucial and should not be overlooked when assessing the trade and emission behaviors of firms. Much of the existing research concentrates solely on the environmental effects of exporting and seldom distinguishes between different export destinations. Additionally, although some studies do consider export destinations, their primary focus tends to be on other production-related factors. Few of these studies address environmental performance, leaving a gap that our research seeks to fill by linking export destinations to environmental outcomes.本文的研究对现有关于贸易环境影响的文献作出了重要补充。第一，本文提供了有力证据，表明出口目的地在影响污染排放方面具有关键作用，指出在评估企业的贸易与排放行为时，这一因素不应被忽视。现有研究大多仅关注出口本身对环境的影响，较少文献区分不同的出口目的地。尽管也有部分研究涉及出口目的地，但其重点往往集中在其他与生产相关的因素上，较少关注企业的环境绩效。本文将出口目的地与环境绩效联系起来，有效地弥补了这一空白，为相关研究提供了新的视角。Second, this study proposes a novel methodology to explore how variations in export destinations impact firm-level production outcomes. Unlike previous studies which mainly rely on OLS methods to assess the effects of exports to different destinations, we adopt the ATT framework. This approach is particularly well-suited for addressing endogeneity issues, such as reverse causality. We construct control group of non-exporters that share characteristics similar to treatment group. Our model includes two distinct treatment groups: firms that begin exporting to high-tech countries and those that start exporting to low-tech countries. To ensure comparability between the control and treatment groups, we use lagged variables that capture essential firm-level attributes, such as environmental performance and production capabilities. This method helps to control for omitted variable bias. Moreover, by employing two treatment groups and a common control group, we address the reverse causality issue effectively. Overall, this methodological approach serves as a valuable reference for future research examining influence of export destinations on company's performance.第二，本文提出了一种新的方法，用于探讨出口目的地的差异如何影响企业的生产。与以往主要采用普通最小二乘法（OLS）来评估出口目的地影响的研究不同，本文采用了平均处理效应（ATT）框架。该方法在应对内生性问题（如反向因果关系）方面具有显著优势。本文构建了一个由非出口企业组成的对照组，这些企业在关键特征上与处理组相似。本文设定了两个不同的处理组：一是开始向高技术国家出口的企业，二是开始向低技术国家出口的企业。为确保处理组与对照组之间的可比性，本文在匹配中采用了一系列滞后变量作为协变量，这些协变量涵盖了企业的环境绩效和生产特征等变量，进而有效控制了遗漏变量偏误的问题。此外，通过设定两个处理组和一个共同的对照组，本文进一步缓解了反向因果带来的干扰。总体而言，这一方法为今后研究出口目的地对企业绩效影响的文献提供了有益的参考。Third, we introduce theoretical model in examining how export destinations influence environmental impacts of trade, thereby contributing theoretical perspective to the extant research on trade and environment. While much of the prior literature has primarily focused upon empirical approaches to analyze trade's environmental consequences, there remains a scarcity of studies that adopt a theoretical perspective. Furthermore, the majority of research tends to analyze trade's environmental impact from macro, sectoral, or regional viewpoints, with few studies approaching the issue from a microeconomic perspective. In contrast to this existing body of work, our paper develops a micro-level theoretical model that integrates both the trade behaviors of firms and their pollution emission patterns with respect to different countries. Through this approach, the study offers fresh perspectives on connection between trade and environmental outcomes, analyzed from a microeconomic standpoint.第三，本文构建了一个理论模型，用于分析出口目的地异质性如何影响的生态环境，从而为现有探讨贸易与环境关系的研究提供了理论层面的补充。以往的大量文献主要采用实证方法来探讨贸易对环境的影响，但在理论视角上的研究仍相对稀缺。此外，现有研究多从宏观、产业或地区层面展开分析，较少从微观角度切入。与这些研究不同，本文构建了一个微观层面的理论模型，将企业的贸易行为与其污染排放行为相结合，为已有研究提供重要的理论参考。

作者简介：

黄耿：广东外语外贸大学讲师，研究兴趣为空间一般均衡、国际贸易学、环境经济学等，部分研究成果发表于Macroeconomic Dynamics、China Economic Review、Economic Modelling、Energy Economics、Structural Change and Economic Dynamics等学术期刊。林熙：广州大学经济与统计学院讲师，硕士生导师，研究兴趣为国际贸易学、环境经济学、微观应用计量经济学、数字经济学等，部分研究成果发表于《世界经济》、Macroeconomic Dynamics、China Economic Review、Environmental and Resource Economics、Economics of Transition and Institutional Change、Energy Economics、Environment and Development Economics等学术期刊。何凌云（通讯作者）：暨南大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，研究兴趣为能源经济和环境政策, 计算经济学,复杂系统和复杂性科学等，部分研究成果发表于《经济研究》、《中国工业经济》、Macroeconomic Dynamics、Energy Economics、Applied Economics、Transport Policy, Transportation Research D: Transport and Environment、 Energy Policy、International Review of Economics and Finance、Structural Change and Economic Dynamics、China Economic Review等学术期刊。

论文链接：

https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1l56O,Nl9YLuft

转载本文请联系原作者获取授权，同时请注明本文来自何凌云科学网博客。
链接地址：https://wap.sciencenet.cn/blog-37405-1485597.html

上一篇：本人团队最新论文被China Economic Review 接收，敬请关注