我们团队近期在《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》发表题为“Recent changes in antarctic surface air temperature based on the fusion of satellite and in-situ measurements”的研究论文，采用器测站点和卫星遥感数据融合并重建的气候数据分析得出：近期南极区域整体的气温变化趋势并不明显，从区域性来看，南极半岛的升温趋势略高，但在系统考虑了拟合不确定性和数据不确定性后，仍然达不到95%信度上的显著水平。进一步分析表明，南极气温变化的第一、二模态分别由南半球环状模、ENSO驱动和调制，人类活动的影响仍然并不明显。

文章第一作者为谢思琴（中山大学2025届本科生，现为复旦大学硕士研究生）。

Ref：Xie S., Wei S., Li Z., Li Q.*, 2026,  Recent  Changes  in  Antarctic Surface Air Temperature Based on the Fusion of Satellite and In-situ  Measurements,   Theor.   Appl.   Climatol.， DOI: 10.1007/s00704-026-06130-0，in press.

文章中文摘要

南极地表气温（SAT）的近期变化已受到越来越多的关注。然而，由于地表观测的采样限制，检测南极的地表气温趋势存在显著的不确定性。本研究利用南极地区更为全面的中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）陆表温度（LST）数据，基于 ERA5 再分析数据提供的陆表温度与地表气温之间的线性关系，来估算地表气温数据。考虑到冰雪反照率模型和云污染等因素会导致原始卫星陆表温度数据产生偏差，本研究通过概率密度函数（PDF）匹配方法，利用现场温度测量值对该偏差进行了校正。结果表明，与 ERA5 再分析数据和现场测量值相比，经偏差校正后的 MODIS 反演地表气温在表征南极地表气温变化方面显示出显著改进。基于 2001 年至 2023 年的多种数据集，南极的平均气温呈现出显著的空间异质性，南极半岛、西南极洲和沿海地区相对较暖，而东南极洲内部则相对较冷。在此期间，南极半岛呈现出变暖趋势，而西南极洲则呈现出变冷趋势。然而，考虑到拟合和数据的不确定性，南极及其子区域的地表气温趋势在 95% 的置信水平上不具有统计显著性，这表明人为变暖尚未超过南极内部气候变率的水平。

Abstract

Recent changes in Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) have received growing attention. However, due to sampling limitations in surface observations, detecting SAT trends in Antarctica carries significant uncertainty. This study estimates SAT data using the more comprehensive Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) in Antarctica, based on the linear relationship between LST and SAT provided by the ERA5 reanalysis. Considering factors such as the ice-snow albedo model and cloud contamination, which cause biases in the raw satellite LST data, the bias is corrected using in-situ temperature measurements through a probability density function (PDF) matching method. The results show that the bias-corrected MODIS-derived SAT has shown notable improvements in terms of representativeness of Antarctic SAT changes compared to both ERA5 and in-situ measurements. Based on various datasets from 2001 to 2023, Antarctica exhibits notable spatial heterogeneity in average temperature, with the Antarctic Peninsula, West Antarctica, and coastal regions being relatively warmer, while the interior of East Antarctica remains comparatively colder. During this period, the Antarctic Peninsula has shown a warming trend, whereas West Antarctica has exhibited a cooling trend. However, given the fitting and data uncertainties, the SAT trends for Antarctica and its sub-regions are not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, suggesting that anthropogenic warming has not yet exceeded the level of internal climate variability in Antarctica.