小柯机器人

英国牛津大学Moritz U. G. Kraemer研究团队揭示人群密度对COVID-19流行的影响。这一研究成果于2020年10月5日在线发表在国际学术期刊《自然—医学》上。

Title: Crowding and the shape of COVID-19 epidemics

Author: Benjamin Rader, Samuel V. Scarpino, Anjalika Nande, Alison L. Hill, Ben Adlam, Robert C. Reiner, David M. Pigott, Bernardo Gutierrez, Alexander E. Zarebski, Munik Shrestha, John S. Brownstein, Marcia C. Castro, Christopher Dye, Huaiyu Tian, Oliver G. Pybus, Moritz U. G. Kraemer

Issue&Volume: 2020-10-05

Abstract: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread1–4. Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic transmission is lacking7. In this study, we analyzed highly resolved spatial variables in cities, together with case count data, to investigate the role of climate, urbanization and variation in interventions. We show that the degree to which cases of COVID-19 are compressed into a short period of time (peakedness of the epidemic) is strongly shaped by population aggregation and heterogeneity, such that epidemics in crowded cities are more spread over time, and crowded cities have larger total attack rates than less populated cities. Observed differences in the peakedness of epidemics are consistent with a meta-population model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. We paired our estimates with globally comprehensive data on human mobility and predict that crowded cities worldwide could experience more prolonged epidemics. 

DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-1104-0

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1104-0

Nature Medicine：《自然—医学》，创刊于1995年。隶属于施普林格·自然出版集团，最新IF：87.241
官方网址：https://www.nature.com/nm/
投稿链接：https://mts-nmed.nature.com/cgi-bin/main.plex