江苏师范大学Shi-Yong Yu团队近日研究了近160年来大气遥相关驱动的黄河下游冰相关洪水。2025年6月6日出版的《科学进展》杂志发表了这项成果。
冰塞洪水是一种独特但研究不足的水文灾害，发生在寒冷地区的河流中，当上游融化和下游冻结造成冰堵塞时。尽管其影响严重，但其大气驱动因素和未来趋势尚不清楚。利用160年的文献记录、历史再分析数据集和统计建模，课题组研究了世界上最容易发生洪水的河流之一黄河下游冰塞洪水的气候和水文控制。
研究结果表明，冰塞洪水受到大规模大气遥相关的强烈影响，包括北极涛动、西伯利亚高压和乌拉尔阻塞，它们调节着区域热对比和冷空气入侵。在过去的一个世纪里，冰塞洪水频率有所下降，由于气候变暖导致上游到下游的温度梯度减弱，热点向河口转移。使用偏差校正的CMIP6多模型集合进行的预测表明，到2100年，冰塞洪水的发生率将继续下降。该研究弥合了历史和未来的观点，强调了随着气候变化在全球范围内改变水文风险，适应性洪水管理的必要性。
附：英文原文
Title: Ice-related flooding in the lower Yellow River driven by atmospheric teleconnections over the past 160 years
Author: Shi-Yong Yu, Liang Zhou, Wenjia Li, Chunhai Li, Xuefeng Yu, Jrg Franke
Issue&Volume: 2025-06-06
Abstract: Ice-jam floods are a unique yet understudied hydrological hazard, occurring in cold-region rivers when upstream thawing and downstream freezing create ice blockages. Despite their severe impacts, their atmospheric drivers and future trends remain unclear. Using a 160-year documentary record, historical reanalysis datasets, and statistical modeling, we examine the climatic and hydrological controls of ice-jam floods in the lower Yellow River, one of the world’s most flood-prone rivers. Our findings show that ice-jam floods are strongly influenced by large-scale atmospheric teleconnections, including the Arctic Oscillation, Siberian High, and Ural Blocking, which regulate regional thermal contrasts and cold-air intrusions. Over the past century, ice-jam flood frequency has declined, with hot spots shifting toward the river estuary due to weakening upstream-to-downstream temperature gradients under climate warming. Projections using bias-corrected CMIP6 multimodel ensemble indicate a continued decline in ice-jam flood occurrences by 2100. Our study bridges historical and future perspectives, emphasizing the need for adaptive flood management as climate change shifts hydrological risks worldwide.
DOI: adw4729
