摘要：为有效应对流行病应急管理活动中的复杂性问题，引入多主体仿真的方法和技术，以甲型（H1N1）流感输入性病例引发的疫情蔓延为例，构建了流行病传播的多主体仿真模型，并对其“围堵式”防控策略的执行效果进行了仿真实现。结果表明：多主体仿真可以作为流行病研究的一种十分有效的方法和技术工具，通过借助于计算机手段来构建流行病研究的“人工实验室”，基于仿真进行试验研究可以为流行病应急管理活动的组织与实施提供必要的策略和决策依据。

关键词：流行病；应急管理；多主体仿真；防控策略; “围堵式”策略

Abstract: For effectively dealing with the complexity problems inherited in emergency management activities of epidemics, the multi-agent based simulation method and technologies were introduced in to our study. A multi-agent based simulation model was build up for the spread of influenza A (H1N1) with imported cases, and the performance of implementing some containment prevention and control strategies was exhibited. The results show that: multi-agent based simulation can be used as one of the most effective methods as well as technological tools for epidemical studies. By constructing an “artificial laboratory” for researches of epidemics via computers, experimental studies based on simulations may provide foundations for strategies and decisions about the organization and implementation of the epidemical emergency management activities.

Keywords: epidemics; emergency management; multi-agent based simulation; prevention and control strategies; containment strategies

流行病防控策略的多主体仿真研究.pdf

《计算机应用研究》2012.4（已录用）