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Science:孩子变少,老人变多----并非世界末日一文替代计量结果

已有 2294 次阅读 2014-10-11 08:36 |个人分类:科学计量|系统分类:科研笔记

 孩子变少,老年人变多--并非世界末日

Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption

在低生育率会让政府资金吃紧并会在全世界许多发达国家中降低生活标准的警告中,Ronald Lee及其同事提出,适度低下的生育率及缓慢衰减的人口实际上可能会提高生活标准。研究人员用一种新近能够得到的数据集——被称作国家转移账户,它将调查结果、管理数据及联合国国家账户系统进行结合来估计40个不同国家中人们在不同年龄所生产及消费的商品和服务--以及在不同世代间通过家庭成员(如大学学费)或政府计划(如社会安全金)所转移的钱的数额。通过分析全世界纳税人与受益者及工人与消费者的表观关系,他们得出的结论是,低于替代率——或维持目前人口水平所必须的百分率——的生育率会给政府预算带来最大的负担--但政府能轻松地调整它们的政策来进行适应。他们说,当诸如家庭动态及教育等因素纳入考虑时,略微低于替代率的生育率将变得理想,它能改善最大数目的人的物质生活标准。研究人员承认,在他们的研究中未被纳入的如移民及不平等问题也会影响生活标准,但他们提出,政府仍然会对目前在世界各地所见的低下的生育率做出适应性改变。由Timothy Smeeding 撰写的一则《视角》文章更为详细地对这些发现连同另外一篇显示全球人口会在整个本世纪中持续增长的报告结果进行了讨论。(DOI:10.1126/science.1250542

http://www.bio360.net/news/show/11812.html

 

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Science
Vol. 346 no. 6206 pp. 229-234 
DOI: 10.1126/science.1250542
  • REPORT

Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption

+Author Affiliations

  1. 1Department of Demography and Department of Economics, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.

     

     

     

     

     

  2. 2Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96821, USA.

     

     

     

     

     

  3. 3East-West Center, 1601 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848-1601, USA.

     

     

     

     

     

  1. * Corresponding author. E-mail: rlee@demog.berkeley.edu (R.L.); amason@hawaii.edu (A.M.)

Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6206/229.abstract

 



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