科学边缘人罗德海教授分享 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/u/ldh 中国科学院大气物理研究所研究员,四川人.研究方向:气候动力学,大气动力学

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即使是官科,科研成果能得到承认也不容易!!!

已有 4034 次阅读 2014-6-6 17:00 |个人分类:科研心得|系统分类:观点评述

今天疯子在抱怨,说民科的科研成果得不到承认和支持,其实何尝是民科。实际上很多官科的成果也得不到承认。一个科研成果能不能得到承认,关键还在于人们的认识水平(即识货的能力)。在一个低水平的学术环境中,好的科研成果(瑰宝)也是很难被人们发现的。特别是越是珍贵的东西,人们越是很难发现它的价值之所在。正确的态度不是抱怨,而是等待(当然包括向国内外专家讲你的工作优势在那里),让时间去评价。


在前面的博文,我已解读过Lorenz的工作。他1963年发表的论文,在十多年的时间里,并没有引起人们的关注。直到1975年以后,人们才发现它的价值,并引起重视。到目前为止其引用率大约有13000多次。所以真正好的科研成果要立即得到人们承认是很难的。

又如我关于阻塞(blocking)的科研成果同样不被重视,下面是我在一篇投国外文章引言中所写的几段话,描述我的理论模式与老外理论的差别,以及我的理论模式的优势在哪里。

At present, there is a lack of a theory or model that can describe the whole life cycle (onset, intensification, maintenance and decay) of a blocking flow in terms of its duration, intensity and location, although previous blocking theories can explain the maintenance of a blocking flow(McWilliams 1980; Shutts 1983; Haines and Marshall 1987; Yamazaki and Itoh 2013),perhaps except the nonlinear multi-scale interaction (NMI) model of Luo (2005a,b,c),Luo and Chen (2006), and Luo et al. (2014b). Unfortunately,the previous theoretical models cannot describe the evolution of a blocking flow. Instead, they can only capture a steady state of a dipole blocking flow,thus may be referred to as the steady-state models, hereafter. Obviously,the steady-state models cannot be used to investigate how the life process described by parameters such as intensity, duration and position of a blocking flow depend upon atmospheric conditions. In particular, they cannot describe the mutual relationship between the phase of NAO and the variability of EB events,even though both the NAO and blocking events have the same timescales of 10-20days (Feldstein 2003; Benedict et al. 2004) and appear to reflect different aspects of the related synoptic activities over the Euro-Atlantic sector.

In recent years, the NMI model as a mathematical description of the nonlinear interaction among the mean flow, planetary- and synoptic-scale waves during the blocking life process developed by Luo (2005a),has been extended to investigate how the life cycle of a NAO event for its two phases is driven by synoptic-scale eddies (Luo et al. 2007a, b; Luo et al.2011). The most merit of the NMI model is able to unify both blocking and NAO events in a model and to describe how the duration, intensity and position of a NAO event or a blocking flow vary with atmospheric parameters such as the strength of mean zonal wind, initial condition and eddy parameters and so on(Luo and Cha 2012; Luo et al. 2014b). In particular, the NMI model can show results that when NAO- (NAO+) events occur,the blocking event frequency is reduced (enhanced) in the European continent(Luo et al. 2007a). As a result, the NMI model is a useful tool for examining how the duration, intensity and position of EB events associated with NAO events depend on the Atlantic background conditions. This NMI model can also be used to reveal the mutual relationship between the NAO events and the frequency distribution of Euro-Atlantic blocking events and to provide an explanation for why intense and long-lived EB events tend to occurin EE (WE) during P1 (P2) as found in Part I of this study.

下面这几段话是一个老外2012年在一个国际刊物发表关于阻塞研究现状的描述:


“Despite the influence blocks can have on society, there is not yet a consistent theory for their creation , prolonged duration, and subsequent dissipation”。很明显他是在说现在还没有一个理论能描述阻塞的生命过程。实际上早在2005年我已提出了一个理论模型,并成功地描述阻塞的生命过程(见上面我写的介绍)。这个理论引发了我一系列的理论研究,但国际学者就是不承认你的工作,你说咋办?


所以正确的态度是看淡它,承不承认无所谓。承认也吧,不承认也吧,“老子”仍是一个学者,并快乐地活着!







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