Tropical Cyclonic Rainfall in China.pdf

Using daily rainfall data from 1936 stations across China, this study investigated tropical cyclonic

rainfall (TCR) changes during 1960–2014. The possible reasons behind TCR changes were examined using

tracks and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) in both space and time. The highest annual TCR occur in

coastal regions of east and southeast China (>500 mm/year). At monthly scale, August TCR can reach

150–250 mm in coastal regions. From the contribution viewpoint, TCR accounts for more than 40% of the

monthly total rainfall and extreme rainfall events along the southeast coast of China. The contributions of TCR

to the monthly rainfall amount decrease rapidly from coast to inland and are even faster for contributions of

TCR to extreme rainfall. The distance inland from the shoreline with 250 km has been identified as the

threshold, within that these contributions abruptly increase with decreasing distance from shoreline, and vice

versa. In terms of extreme rainfall regimes, logistic and Poisson regressive techniques were used to identify

the connections between TC-induced extreme rainfall and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both these two

regressions reveal that TC-induced extreme rainfall tends to occur with higher frequency and magnitude in

southeastern China (east and northeast coast of China) during La Niña (El Niño) years (El Niño). These

consistent relations and remarkable spatial patterns can help to predict the occurrence of TC-induced

extreme rainfall events across eastern China.