Mike Treder于2010年在The Long Journey from Nanotechnology to Emerging Technologies给出了新兴技术的一个定义。

Mike Treder is the Managing Director of the IEET, and former Executive Director of the non-profit Center for Responsible Nantechnology. 

定义如下：

The Emerging Technologies are ones that: 

• arise from new knowledge, or innovative application of existing knowledge; 
• lead to the rapid development of new capabilities; 
• are projected to have significant systemic and long-lasting economic, social and political impacts; 
• creat new opportunities for and challenges to addressing global issues; and 
• have the potential to disrupt or create entire industries. 

Mike Treder尽管给新兴技术下了一个初步的定义，但仍然不太好量化，操作起来有点困难。目前尚不清楚Gartner在绘制Hype Cycle曲线时，对新兴技术是如何理解和量化的。

为便于操作，韩国科学技术信息研究所（KISTIC）Hanmin Jung团队的Jinhyung Kim给出了几个亚新兴技术（Sub-Emerging Technologies）的定义，相比Mike Treder的定义来说，这些亚新兴技术的定义更容易操作一些。

• Triggered Emerging Technologies: Technologies newly appeared in the last two years and bigger than average growth rate; 
• Associated Emerging Technologies: Technologies co-occurred with leading technologies in the last two years; 
• Matured Emerging Technologies: Technologies to be reached into maturity phase in two years from now; 
• Referred Emerging Technologies: Technologies mostly referred by other emerging technologies; 
• Derived Emerging Technologies: Technologies newly appeared on developing other emerging technologies. 

对这些亚新兴技术感兴趣的，可以参考下面这篇论文：

Jinhyung Kim, Seungwoo Lee, Jinhee Lee, Mikyung Lee, and Hanmin Jung, 2011. Design of TOD Model for Analyzing Technology Trends and Predicting Future Trends. FGIT-UNESST, pp. 301-305. 

实际上，上面这篇论文只给出了前三条亚新兴技术的定义，后面两条是今天和交流时得知的，估计是最新的研究成果。

不知还有没有其他易于操作的定义，有知道的同仁可以知会一声，在此先谢过了。

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