自2015年5月19日起，云南双柏地区的小震群（表1）开始发飙，且有可持续发展的势头。
表1 云南双柏地区的小震群事件
日期 | 时间 | 纬度(°) | 经度(°) | 深度 (km) | 震级类型 | 震级值 | 参考地名 |
2015-07-27 | 07:19:04.3 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 9 | ML | 1.2 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-26 | 09:30:44.7 | 24.43 | 101.97 | 8 | ML | 1.1 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-25 | 12:25:15.5 | 24.42 | 101.95 | 8 | ML | 1.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-25 | 10:11:16.3 | 24.42 | 101.92 | 5 | ML | 1.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-24 | 22:32:36.9 | 24.43 | 101.97 | 10 | ML | 1.2 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-22 | 01:48:29.2 | 24.42 | 101.96 | 7 | ML | 1.8 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-22 | 01:13:12.4 | 24.42 | 101.95 | 7 | ML | 1.5 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-20 | 01:50:55.8 | 24.42 | 101.93 | 8 | ML | 1.5 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-19 | 13:21:03.0 | 24.76 | 101.60 | 7 | ML | 1.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-17 | 21:50:13.0 | 24.43 | 102.00 | 5 | ML | 1.6 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-16 | 21:38:59.8 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 6 | ML | 2.3 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-16 | 02:13:36.3 | 24.34 | 102.00 | 6 | ML | 1.7 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-13 | 11:42:46.1 | 24.43 | 101.88 | 11 | ML | 1.5 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-13 | 11:29:16.5 | 24.42 | 101.89 | 12 | ML | 1.8 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-13 | 10:00:52.6 | 24.42 | 101.91 | 13 | ML | 1.3 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-13 | 00:34:17.0 | 24.44 | 102.00 | 6 | ML | 1.2 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-09 | 12:04:14.3 | 24.44 | 102.01 | 7 | ML | 1.1 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-08 | 17:01:01.5 | 24.42 | 101.94 | 6 | ML | 1.8 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-08 | 12:40:28.4 | 24.42 | 101.94 | 9 | ML | 1.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-08 | 00:48:45.4 | 24.42 | 101.84 | 9 | ML | 1.2 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-07 | 12:52:36.3 | 24.43 | 101.97 | 8 | ML | 1.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-07 | 12:52:15.2 | 24.43 | 101.97 | 8 | ML | 1.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-07 | 08:50:45.9 | 24.43 | 101.96 | 9 | ML | 1.5 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-07 | 08:43:53.1 | 24.43 | 101.98 | 8 | ML | 2.1 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-07 | 03:07:16.3 | 24.43 | 101.96 | 10 | ML | 1.9 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-04 | 21:38:59.5 | 24.42 | 101.96 | 9 | ML | 1.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-04 | 01:09:28.7 | 24.41 | 101.94 | 5 | ML | 1.1 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-04 | 00:34:38.4 | 24.44 | 101.99 | 5 | ML | 1.5 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-03 | 18:47:45.2 | 24.42 | 101.95 | 8 | ML | 1.8 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-03 | 18:39:50.1 | 24.42 | 101.95 | 8 | ML | 1.3 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-03 | 18:35:45.5 | 24.41 | 101.95 | 7 | ML | 1.3 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-01 | 11:35:04.6 | 24.43 | 101.98 | 7 | ML | 1.3 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-01 | 03:03:57.4 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 6 | ML | 2.3 | 云南双柏 |
2015-07-01 | 02:51:58.2 | 24.43 | 101.97 | 8 | ML | 1.2 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-15 | 22:01:04.4 | 24.43 | 102.01 | 6 | ML | 2.2 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-15 | 21:05:15.2 | 24.44 | 101.99 | 2 | ML | 2.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-15 | 20:51:23.6 | 24.44 | 102.00 | 6 | ML | 1.9 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-15 | 20:46:12.1 | 24.44 | 101.99 | 9 | ML | 3.8 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-15 | 16:06:06.6 | 24.43 | 102.01 | 6 | ML | 2.2 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-15 | 03:41:20.0 | 24.46 | 102.00 | 16 | ML | 2.3 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-15 | 02:27:38.5 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 6 | ML | 2.0 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 23:38:51.7 | 24.42 | 102.00 | 12 | ML | 1.9 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 20:06:58.9 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 5 | ML | 1.6 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 20:01:14.4 | 24.44 | 101.98 | 12 | ML | 2.7 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 19:51:23.0 | 24.45 | 102.00 | 10 | ML | 1.7 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 18:41:04.6 | 24.43 | 102.00 | 7 | ML | 2.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 15:38:52.6 | 24.42 | 101.97 | 8 | ML | 4.1 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 13:17:12.0 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 10 | ML | 2.1 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 07:21:04.8 | 24.42 | 101.99 | 13 | ML | 3.7 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 07:01:31.0 | 24.45 | 101.99 | 5 | ML | 1.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 06:55:20.9 | 24.43 | 101.98 | 5 | ML | 1.9 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 06:40:58.3 | 24.42 | 101.98 | 12 | ML | 2.8 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 06:04:48.8 | 24.42 | 101.98 | 11 | ML | 2.3 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-14 | 04:25:41.8 | 24.44 | 101.98 | 16 | ML | 2.2 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-13 | 07:15:52.1 | 24.45 | 102.00 | 12 | ML | 1.6 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-13 | 04:53:12.0 | 24.44 | 101.98 | 11 | ML | 1.7 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-13 | 04:05:45.9 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 8 | ML | 2.0 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-12 | 23:03:01.1 | 24.43 | 101.98 | 9 | ML | 2.1 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-12 | 21:34:58.8 | 24.43 | 101.97 | 10 | ML | 1.7 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-12 | 19:21:12.3 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 5 | ML | 2.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-12 | 18:56:01.2 | 24.43 | 101.98 | 10 | ML | 2.0 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-12 | 14:02:47.6 | 24.44 | 101.98 | 12 | ML | 3.0 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-12 | 01:47:37.7 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 10 | ML | 2.2 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-11 | 08:37:04.7 | 24.44 | 101.98 | 12 | ML | 3.1 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-11 | 08:25:16.4 | 24.44 | 101.99 | 14 | ML | 2.9 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-11 | 08:23:53.7 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 11 | ML | 3.6 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-11 | 03:18:52.1 | 24.44 | 101.99 | 12 | ML | 2.0 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-11 | 02:54:14.3 | 24.43 | 101.97 | 5 | ML | 1.2 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-11 | 02:47:14.6 | 24.43 | 102.00 | 9 | ML | 2.5 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-10 | 23:15:52.1 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 11 | ML | 3.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-10 | 16:39:55.5 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 7 | ML | 3.6 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-10 | 16:05:33.0 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 6 | ML | 2.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-10 | 15:51:26.3 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 9 | ML | 2.7 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-10 | 15:47:21.7 | 24.43 | 101.98 | 8 | ML | 3.3 | 云南双柏 |
2015-06-06 | 04:21:31.8 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 11 | ML | 2.7 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-24 | 05:35:26.0 | 24.43 | 102.00 | 14 | ML | 1.6 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-24 | 00:06:54.2 | 24.43 | 102.00 | 11 | ML | 2.2 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-22 | 01:15:33.7 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 11 | ML | 2.8 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-20 | 13:25:54.4 | 24.44 | 101.99 | 12 | ML | 3.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-20 | 05:28:45.5 | 24.46 | 101.99 | 12 | ML | 1.4 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-19 | 20:00:06.6 | 24.43 | 102.00 | 10 | ML | 1.7 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-19 | 19:58:57.5 | 24.42 | 101.97 | 8 | ML | 3.1 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-19 | 18:54:58.3 | 24.42 | 102.00 | 10 | ML | 2.1 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-19 | 17:22:59.3 | 24.42 | 101.98 | 7 | ML | 2.0 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-19 | 16:56:50.3 | 24.44 | 102.00 | 15 | ML | 2.5 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-19 | 14:54:26.0 | 24.43 | 101.98 | 9 | ML | 3.1 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-19 | 14:15:34.1 | 24.42 | 101.99 | 15 | ML | 2.9 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-19 | 14:05:52.0 | 24.45 | 102.00 | 7 | ML | 1.8 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-19 | 13:50:51.1 | 24.43 | 101.98 | 8 | ML | 2.5 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-19 | 13:04:04.8 | 24.42 | 101.97 | 10 | ML | 3.5 | 云南双柏 |
2015-05-19 | 12:46:19.3 | 24.43 | 101.99 | 12 | ML | 2.7 | 云南双柏 |
2015-03-11 | 16:00:37.6 | 24.45 | 101.38 | 8 | ML | 1.7 | 云南双柏 |
http://data.earthquake.cn/data/index.jsp?no=11&number=28
该小震群事件属于哪个地震区呢？属于我们划定的小江地震区（图1），近邻已处于临界状态的下关-楚雄地震区。
图1 中国西南地区某些地震区地震构造图（V3.3版）
（红圈表示双柏地区小震群事件的发震区域；为清晰起见，红圈所示区域略大于实际震中区域。）
根据我们的分析，小江地震区当前孕育周期主震事件尚未发生，未来将发生MS8.1~8.3级地震。巨震发生前，该区还将发生不超过MS7.2级的preshock事件。图2示出了1733年东川MS7.75级地震、1833年嵩明MS8.0级地震与1970年通海MS7.8级地震的力学联系。
鉴于双柏地区小震群事件频发，请有关部门加强宏观异常监测，关注未来3年内在该区及其附近发生MS5.0~6.6级preshock事件的可能。
图2 小江地震区1446.4-2014.7.14之间CBS值与时间关系
（数据分析时选取MS≥4.7级地震事件。横坐标对应的时间减去3000年为实际年份。误差修正已被考虑。）
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