原标题：个体发育决定应对气候变化的能力不同

随着全球气候变暖，植物抽叶提前，落叶推迟，生长季延长。之前的物候模型以树木的幼苗或幼树的生理参数为基础进行预测，前提好像是不正确的，因为幼苗或者幼树与成年大树的物候参数有很大的差别，但没有人严肃对待这个问题。

瑞士学者Vitasse使用起重机把幼苗放在了冠层的位置，以探究个体发育进程或者从树干基部到冠层的温度梯度对物候的影响，他比较了5种树木的物候参数，结果发现无论是把幼苗放不放在冠层，幼苗均比成年树种抽叶更早，但原位的幼苗与冠层或者移栽的幼苗物候没有太大差异，即使冠层的气温要略高于原位的。他认为个体发育进程对物候的影响要大于气温，从而使基于幼苗或者幼树的物候模型去预测森林生态系统对全球变暖的响应产生较大的误差。相关研究论文已经发表在New Phytologist 和 Tree Physiology & Journalof Ecology上。

近期PNAS也有两篇关于物候的研究论文，看样子物候的研究有升温的趋势。

全文：Ontogenic changes rather than difference in temperature cause understory trees to leafout earlier

Is the use of cuttings a good proxy to explore phenological responses of temperate forests in warming and photoperiod experiments?

Earlier leaf-out rather than difference in freezing resistance puts juvenile trees at greater risk of damage than adult trees

相关论文：

TREELIM:Literature

Literature

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VitasseY 2013: Ontogenic changes rather than difference in temperature causeunderstory trees to leaf out earlier. New Phytologist198:149-155