科学网-中国PX抗争事件：经济学人和我的看法-洪建辉的博文

中国PX抗争事件：经济学人和我的看法

2015-4-7 06:57

阅读：10469

标签：雾霾, 信任, 爆炸, 茂名

中国一年消耗PX 达1600万吨，其中过半需要进口。进口的PX在长途运输过程中（轮船，火车，卡车）安全问题大家担心过，讨论过没有？原油油轮都泄漏过，谁能保证运输PX的轮船，火车，卡车不泄漏啊？不建PX厂就要多进口，道理很简单。拉着易燃有毒的进口PX在全中国的路上跑，比起建几个PX厂哪个更危险？

PX易燃和有毒，BTX（benzene, toluene, xylene)中的B和T就不是易燃和有毒吗？易燃和有毒的化学品加上生产过程可能不安全的化学品（包括煤炭，面粉，烟花爆竹，电池，太阳能电池板）有多少种，全都不生产，中国的经济靠什么？核电厂的安全事故可能造成的后果，比起PX严重多了。国外抗争核电建厂的事件比较常见，抗争PX的还没有看到报道。国外这种抗争，叫做“不要建在我的后院"抗争（NIMBY， Not In My Back Yard).

PX抗争的根源是民众对企业和公权力黑箱作业和管理能力的不信任。同样的不信任问题也出现在雾霾，毒奶粉，毒大米，地沟油和转基因上。不尽快解决不信任的根源，以后抗争会扩大化和非理性化，连建乙烯厂，氨水厂和垃圾处理厂都难了。

现在科学网上的讨论和留言中，连“理性”都变成一个贬义词（就像“同志”，“小姐”一样），好像老百姓没有理性思维的能力，把科学家和工程人员放到了老百姓的对立面，颇有文革的气味。动不动就指责敢于说话的科学家和工程人员是利益相关的精英。这种辩论已经很不健康，但是根源还是不信任。

茂名的抗争导致大型国企（Sinopec)PX项目搁浅，福建漳州连续发生爆炸的PX厂据说是台商建的。大型国企和私有企业，哪个有更好的安全记录？这也算是逆向淘汰吧？这非理性抗争的危害，才刚刚开始。Be careful what you wish for, because you might just get it all.

请注意，我没有任何指责参加抗争的民众的意思。这是公民的权力。

经济学人这个报道还算公道，可以让大家看看吧？

http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2014/04/environmental-protest-china

DEMONSTRATIONS against a petrochemical plant have this week reverberated throughout cities in China’s south-eastern Guangdong province, at times becoming riotous. The unrest began on March 30th, when 1,000 protestors assembled outside government buildings in Maoming, a city in southern China’s industrial heartland. They objected to long-standing plans for a 3.5 billion yuan ($563m) paraxylene (PX) plant, a joint venture between the local government and Sinopec, a state-owned oil and gas company. Paraxylene, a chemical in polyester fabric and plastic bottles, is dangerous if inhaled or absorbed through the skin. After several days of protest in Maoming, by April 4th smaller sister demonstrations had broken out in the cities of Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

Events in Maoming (pictured) were at first peaceful. But according to eyewitnesses quoted by the BBC, the crowd became tetchy, burning a car and throwing bottles until police dispersed it with tear gas and batons. Unverified pictures circulating briefly online—internet censors soon interjected—showed bloodied citizens, some apparently unconscious. Such scenes prompted Human Rights Watch (HRW) to question whether police used disproportionate force. Li Keqiang, China’s prime minister, has pledged to launch a “war on pollution”, says Sophie Richardson, HRW’s China director. “Yet when citizens demonstrate their concerns for the environment they appear to be in harm’s way.” So far 18 people have been detained, charged with assembling a mob to disrupt social order.

Since 2010 China has been the world’s largest PX producer and consumer, getting through 16m tonnes of the stuff in 2013. More than half of what is consumed is imported, a costly arrangement resulting in a supply gap of 9.5m tonnes. Authorities are attempting to ramp up domestic production by building plants in some major cities.

But for citizens who regularly breathe polluted air and drink water of debatable toxicity, the state of the environment has become a central concern. It is also one of the few areas where “mass incidents”, to use party parlance, are to a degree tolerated. Hundreds of environmental protests occurred in China last year.

Paraxylene is a particular bugbear. In 2007 in Xiamen, a city in Fujian province, tens of thousands of protestors rallied over a proposed PX plant in one of the first large displays of citizen disgruntlement with the deteriorating environment. Similar protests have since occurred in the north-eastern city of Dalian and a south-western city, Anning. A consistent pattern has emerged of government secrecy giving rise to freewheeling civic rumour, followed by street action and, finally, official acquiescence.

This is despite vigorous propaganda campaigns to assuage public fears. On March 31st, the day after the protests, the MaomingDaily, a local state-run newspaper, described PX as “an important element for building our happy life” on its front page (in Chinese). The People’s Daily, a national party mouthpiece, once said (in Chinese) that PX was no more carcinogenic than coffee. A television station in Yunnan province broadcast a series on PX production in Japan to show how the industry and the environment co-exist without issue.

What the public wants is greater transparency, and to be a part of the decison-making process. Following the ruckus in Xiamen, that PX facility was moved to Zhangzhou, in Fujian province. A more conciliatory approach saw public involvement in impact assessments, reports from petrochemical experts, door-knocking cadres, overseas and domestic study trips and the necessary “positive” publicity. Zhangzhou has become a model of how to deftly handle paraxylene PR.

In contrast, the Maoming government’s furtiveness heightened unease. “There are clear and open paths [authorities] could follow, yet they hide in the shadows,” writes Liu Jianqiang, an editor at chinadialogue.net, an environmental issues website and journal. “And we are meant to not wonder what they are doing there? Who exactly is giving PX a bad name?”

For better or worse authorities will struggle to restore faith in the Maoming project now. At a press briefing on April 3rd, officials appeared to back down, saying that the plant was still in an early planning phase and would not go ahead without public consensus. If true, in a country where citizens rarely participate in policymaking, it is a small but meaningful victory.