美国华盛顿大学N J Kassebaum团队研究了全球、地区和国家70岁及以上成年人的疾病和伤害负担。2022年3月10日出版的《英国医学杂志》发表了这项成果。
为了利用《2019年全球疾病、伤害和风险因素负担研究》（GBD 2019）的数据，估计70岁以上老年人口的死亡率和残疾趋势，并评估死亡原因、残疾和风险因素的模式，1990-2019年，研究组从204个国家和地区招募年龄大于70岁的参与者进行系统分析。
根据标准化GBD方法，研究组估计了寿命损失年数、残疾年数、残疾校正后的寿命年数、70岁时的预期寿命（LE-70）、70岁时的健康预期寿命（HALE-70）、70岁时的健康不良年数比例（PYIH-70）、风险因素和数据覆盖指数。
自1990年以来，全球老年人口有所增加，男性和女性的全因死亡率有所下降。然而，1990至2019年间，因跌倒而导致的死亡率有所上升。70-90岁人群的死亡率下降，主要是因为非传染性疾病的减少。
在全球范围内，残疾负担主要由功能衰退、视力和听力丧失以及疼痛症状所驱动。自1990年以来，LE-70和HALE-70在全球范围内持续增长，但存在一定的地区差异。全球范围内，LE-70的升高导致HALE-70的升高，而PYIH-70则略有增加。
社会人口统计学、医疗保健和质量指数与HALE-70和LE-70呈正相关。对于高暴露风险因素，数据覆盖率适中，而对于各种饮食、环境或职业以及代谢风险的可用数据有限。
研究结果表明，全球70岁人群的预期寿命持续增长，主要是因为慢性病的减少。生活在高收入国家和地区的70岁以上老年人的预期寿命和健康预期寿命最高，他们的医疗服务和质量更好。然而，残疾负担却未改善，这表明需要加强公共卫生和干预方案，以改善老年人的福祉。
附：英文原文
Title: Global, regional, and national burden of diseases and injuries for adults 70 years and older: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study
Author: GBD Ageing Collaborators
Issue&Volume: 2022/03/10
Abstract:
Objectives To use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to estimate mortality and disability trends for the population aged ≥70 and evaluate patterns in causes of death, disability, and risk factors.
Design Systematic analysis.
Setting Participants were aged ≥70 from 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.
Main outcomes measures Years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability adjusted life years, life expectancy at age 70 (LE-70), healthy life expectancy at age 70 (HALE-70), proportion of years in ill health at age 70 (PYIH-70), risk factors, and data coverage index were estimated based on standardised GBD methods.
Results Globally the population of older adults has increased since 1990 and all cause death rates have decreased for men and women. However, mortality rates due to falls increased between 1990 and 2019. The probability of death among people aged 70-90 decreased, mainly because of reductions in non-communicable diseases. Globally disability burden was largely driven by functional decline, vision and hearing loss, and symptoms of pain. LE-70 and HALE-70 showed continuous increases since 1990 globally, with certain regional disparities. Globally higher LE-70 resulted in higher HALE-70 and slightly increased PYIH-70. Sociodemographic and healthcare access and quality indices were positively correlated with HALE-70 and LE-70. For high exposure risk factors, data coverage was moderate, while limited data were available for various dietary, environmental or occupational, and metabolic risks.
Conclusions Life expectancy at age 70 has continued to rise globally, mostly because of decreases in chronic diseases. Adults aged ≥70 living in high income countries and regions with better healthcare access and quality were found to experience the highest life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Disability burden, however, remained constant, suggesting the need to enhance public health and intervention programmes to improve wellbeing among older adults.
DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2021-068208
Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj-2021-068208
BMJ-British Medical Journal:《英国医学杂志》，创刊于1840年。隶属于BMJ出版集团，最新IF：93.333
官方网址：http://www.bmj.com/
投稿链接：https://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/bmj
本期文章：《英国医学杂志》：Online/在线发表
