小柯机器人

奥地利维也纳医科大学Thomas Niederkrotenthaler团队研究了Logic的嘻哈歌曲“1-800-273-8255”与生命线电话和自杀率的相关性。2021年12月13日出版的《英国医学杂志》发表了这项成果。

为了评估美国嘻哈艺术家Logic的歌曲“1-800-273-8255”引起公众广泛关注期间，美国国家自杀预防生命线的每日呼叫量和自杀率的变化，2010年1月1日至2018年12月31日，研究组在美国设计了一项时间序列分析。参与者为美国总人口。生命线电话和自杀数据是从生命线和疾病控制和预防中心获得的。

主要结局为歌曲发布前后的每日生命线通话和自杀数据。推特帖子被用来估计这首歌受关注数量和持续时间。季节性自回归综合移动平均时间序列模型被拟合到发布前的时期，以估计生命线呼叫和自杀事件。模型被拟合到完整的时间序列中，其中包含对歌曲高度关注的虚拟变量。

在公众关注度最高的三项活动（歌曲发布、2017年MTV音乐录影带奖和2018年格莱美奖）之后的34天内，生命线接到了9915个电话，比预期数字增加6.9%，差异显著。相应的自杀模型表明，在同一时期内，预期自杀人数减少了245例（5.5%）。

研究结果表明，Logic的歌曲“1-800-273-8255”与呼叫生命线的大量增加有关。在关于这首歌的社交媒体讨论最多的时期，自杀率有所下降。

附：英文原文

Title: Association of Logic’s hip hop song “1-800-273-8255” with Lifeline calls and suicides in the United States: interrupted time series analysis

Author: Thomas Niederkrotenthaler, Ulrich S Tran, Madelyn Gould, Mark Sinyor, Steven Sumner, Markus J Strauss, Martin Voracek, Benedikt Till, Sean Murphy, Frances Gonzalez, Matthew J Spittal, John Draper

Issue&Volume: 2021/12/13

Abstract:

Objective To assess changes in daily call volumes to the US National Suicide Prevention Lifeline and in suicides during periods of wide scale public attention to the song “1-800-273-8255” by American hip hop artist Logic.

Design Time series analysis.

Setting United States, 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2018.

Participants Total US population. Lifeline calls and suicide data were obtained from Lifeline and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Main outcome measures Daily Lifeline calls and suicide data before and after the release of the song. Twitter posts were used to estimate the amount and duration of attention the song received. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average time series models were fitted to the pre-release period to estimate Lifeline calls and suicides. Models were fitted to the full time series with dummy variables for periods of strong attention to the song.

Results In the 34 day period after the three events with the strongest public attention (the song’s release, the MTV Video Music Awards 2017, and Grammy Awards 2018), Lifeline received an excess of 9915 calls (95% confidence interval 6594 to 13236), an increase of 6.9% (95% confidence interval 4.6% to 9.2%, P<0.001) over the expected number. A corresponding model for suicides indicated a reduction over the same period of 245 suicides (95% confidence interval 36 to 453) or 5.5% (95% confidence interval 0.8% to 10.1%, P=0.02) below the expected number of suicides.

Conclusions Logic’s song “1-800-273-8255” was associated with a large increase in calls to Lifeline. A reduction in suicides was observed in the periods with the most social media discourse about the song.

DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2021-067726

Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-067726

BMJ-British Medical Journal:《英国医学杂志》，创刊于1840年。隶属于BMJ出版集团，最新IF：93.333
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