小柯机器人

英国牛津大学Jan M. Brauner等研究人员合作评估了各种政府干预措施对COVID-19控制的有效性。这一研究成果于2020年12月15日在线发表在国际学术期刊《科学》上。

研究人员收集了有关2020年1月至2020年5月底几个欧洲国家和其他国家/地区实施非药物干预（NPI）的时间顺序数据。研究人员估计了NPI的有效性，范围从限制聚集规模、商业关闭、关闭教育机构到送货到家。为此，研究人员使用了贝叶斯分层模型，该模型将NPI实施日期与国家案例和死亡人数相关联，并通过广泛的经验验证来支持结果。关闭所有教育机构、将聚会限制在10人以内，以及关闭面对面的业务均大大减少了传播。送货到家的附加影响相对较小。

据悉，各国政府正在尝试通过NPI来控制COVID-19大流行。但是，人们对不同NPI减少传播的有效性了解甚少。

附：英文原文

Title: Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19

Author: Jan M. Brauner, Sren Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, David Johnston, John Salvatier, Tomá Gaveniak, Anna B. Stephenson, Gavin Leech, George Altman, Vladimir Mikulik, Alexander John Norman, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, Tamay Besiroglu, Hong Ge, Meghan A. Hartwick, Yee Whye Teh, Leonid Chindelevitch, Yarin Gal, Jan Kulveit

Issue&Volume: 2020/12/15

Abstract: Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We gathered chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European, and other, countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimate the effectiveness of NPIs, ranging from limiting gathering sizes, business closures, and closure of educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably. The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small.

DOI: 10.1126/science.abd9338

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/15/science.abd9338