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研究揭示第一波COVID-19大流行对21个工业化国家全因死亡率的影响
2020-10-15 16:28

英国帝国理工学院Majid Ezzati研究组揭示了第一波COVID-19大流行对21个工业化国家全因死亡率的影响的大小、人口统计和动态。2020年10月14日,《自然—医学》在线发表了这一成果。

研究人员将16个贝叶斯模型的集合应用于生命统计数据,以评估21个工业化国家大流行的全因死亡率影响。从2020年2月中旬到5月,这些国家的死亡人数比未发生大流行的人数高出206,000(95%置信区间,178,100-231,000)。在大多数国家,男女之间的额外死亡人数,每十万人的额外死亡人数和相对增加的死亡人数相似。
 
英格兰和威尔士和西班牙的影响最大:每100,000人中有100多例额外死亡,相当于英格兰和威尔士的相对增长37%(30–44%),西班牙的相对增长38%(31–45%)。保加利亚、新西兰、斯洛伐克、澳大利亚、捷克共和国、匈牙利、波兰、挪威、丹麦和芬兰的死亡率发生了变化,在两种性别中的范围从可能的小幅下降至增加5%或更少。
 
COVID-19大流行造成的不同死亡率影响反映了各国对大流行的管理方式以及卫生和社会护理系统的应变能力和防范能力的差异。
 
据介绍,COVID-19大流行改变了许多社会、经济、环境和医疗保健的健康决定因素。
 
附:英文原文

Title: Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries

Author: Vasilis Kontis, James E. Bennett, Theo Rashid, Robbie M. Parks, Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, Michel Guillot, Perviz Asaria, Bin Zhou, Marco Battaglini, Gianni Corsetti, Martin McKee, Mariachiara Di Cesare, Colin D. Mathers, Majid Ezzati

Issue&Volume: 2020-10-14

Abstract: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100–231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30–44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31–45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.

DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-1112-0

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1112-0

Nature Medicine:《自然—医学》,创刊于1995年。隶属于施普林格·自然出版集团,最新IF:30.641
官方网址:https://www.nature.com/nm/
投稿链接:https://mts-nmed.nature.com/cgi-bin/main.plex


本期文章:《自然—医学》:Online/在线发表

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