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科学家剖析自然对人类的贡献
2019-10-11 15:28

美国斯坦福大学Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer团队建立了自然对人类贡献的全球模型。相关论文2019年10月11日发表于国际学术期刊《科学》。

研究人员针对以下几个方面提出了当前状态和未来情景的精细全球模型:水质调节、沿海风险降低和农作物授粉。研究人员发现,现在人们对自然的需求最大,而自然满足这些需求的能力正在下降。在未来土地利用和气候变化的情况下,尤其是在非洲和南亚,多达50亿人面临着更高的水污染和授粉不足引起的营养缺乏。在非洲、欧亚大陆和美洲,亿万人民面临着更大的沿海风险。

自然的持续丧失构成了严重的威胁,但是在可持续发展的情况下,这些威胁可以减少3到10倍。

研究人员表示,全球变化的规模和步伐要求对自然及其对人类的贡献进行快速评估。

附:英文原文

Title: Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people

Author: Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Richard P. Sharp, Charlotte Weil, Elena M. Bennett, Unai Pascual, Katie K. Arkema, Kate A. Brauman, Benjamin P. Bryant, Anne D. Guerry, Nick M. Haddad, Maike Hamann, Perrine Hamel, Justin A. Johnson, Lisa Mandle, Henrique M. Pereira, Stephen Polasky, Mary Ruckelshaus, M. Rebecca Shaw, Jessica M. Silver, Adrian L. Vogl, Gretchen C. Daily

Issue&Volume: Volume 366 Issue 6462

Abstract: 

The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people’s needs for nature are now greatest, nature’s ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.

DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw3372

Source:https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6462/255

Science:《科学》,创刊于1880年。隶属于美国科学促进会,最新IF:63.714
官方网址:https://www.sciencemag.org/
投稿链接:https://cts.sciencemag.org/scc/#/login

本期文章:《科学》:Volume 366 Issue 6462

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