Jared Diamond:Collapse: How Societies choose to fall or succeed (您可能会感兴趣的)
我的回复(2015-4-28 08:21):Civilizational crises in the ancient and premodern world, Goldstone’s premodern crises, may have been conditioned by endogenous degradation of sustainability, but they were fundamentally driven by natural forces exogenous to human society. This is my core view.
我的回复(2015-4-28 03:36):他的观点是内因论,人口论或资源论,已经被批判了。现在流行的是外因论,气候论或人类进化的间歇论,比如John Brooke的新书climate change and the course of history,对人类进化的Gould的观点,通过气候变化来证明。我虽然不太懂气候变化,但我的火灾似乎可以解释人类有文字记录以后的文明演化,所以是站在外因说,或自然决定论的观点上的。你的气候变暖学说,基本还是内因论,人口论,所以我们站在不同的立场,自然看法有所不同。我对自己的观点也是深信不疑的,虽然历史学家仍然在争论不休。我能够通过火灾看出某些历史现象的气候背景(比如汉代前后的汉匈冲突,每30年发生一次),这是他们做不到、看不见的。
• Zhudeng Wei,
• Xiuqi Fang,
• and Yun Su
Climate change and fiscal balance in China over the past two millennia
The Holocene December 2014 24: 1771-1784, first published on October 6, 2014doi:10.1177/0959683614551224
我的回复(2015-4-14 13:26):Thanks, this is interesting to me. Ting