本文为挪威科技大学（作者：Jenny A. Engeland Hansen）的论文，共76页。

在这篇论文中，我们研究下一代移动网络（5G）的经济影响。移动网络是一个有趣的话题，因为无论在今天还是将来，电信都是我们社会基础设施不可或缺的一部分。由于现有的4G网络没有足够的容量来处理未来的移动数据流量，因此需要发展5G。重要的是要了解5G的经济影响，以确保下一代移动网络在经济上是可持续的。尽管5G离商业部署还有几年的时间，但现在是开始解决某些经济问题的好时机。例如，在使能技术仍处于研发阶段、5G标准化之前，尽早开始考虑未来网络的成本方面是明智的。这对于提供基础设施的移动网络运营商尤为重要。同样，所有打算创造与5G相关收入的参与者都对5G的商业潜力感兴趣。这些参与者的一些例子包括服务提供商、内容提供商、电信设备（硬件）销售公司以及移动网络运营商。

本论文的三个总体目标是，运用投资组合理论解释5G的定义，确定5G最重要的经济影响，并为运营在5G环境下的移动网络运营商制定一个优化规划问题。我们的主要目的是提供一个概述，作为进一步研究5G经济学的起点。

首先，以有关5G的现有文献为出发点，我们探讨5G在目前是如何定义的，以及最近的文献是如何处理其经济和商业相关方面的。5G还没有标准化，但是文献表明，大多数参与者和利益相关者对5G的用例和实际需求都达成了一致。我们看到，到目前为止，大多数5G文献都是在提出5G中包含的技术，以便5G能够满足实际要求。异构网络、设备到设备通信、软件定义的网络、网络功能虚拟化、认知无线电、毫米波段传输、先进的多输入多输出技术和软件无线电是可能表征5G特性的重要技术例子。一个重要的发现是，目前还没有对5G的经济影响进行太多的专门研究。然而，也有一些文章致力于这一领域，他们正在研究所提议的新技术的盈利能力：如设备到设备通信和5G异构网络。一些经济影响也在一些技术性出版物中有所提及，例如移动网络运营商面临的日益增加的费用，以及这些费用在未来需要保持在合理水平的必要性。基于软件实现和虚拟化技术的云概念被描述为解决成本问题的有希望的解决方案，同时，5G异构网络中的蜂窝成本也有所降低。如果基站的部署和运营成本降低，那么在农村地区部署新基站的决策就更容易了。这对社会经济发展有直接影响，而连通性是重要的推动因素。此外，文献中对绿色环保方面有一定的关注，特别是在基站的功耗方面。这些考虑因素也直接关系到5G的经济背景，从5G业务的角度来看，5G网络性能的提升可能会带来新的商机。除了改善现有服务的用户体验外，当网络延迟最小化和可靠性提高时，首先启用的应用程序会带来新的机会。这包括关键任务通信、物联网产生的大量互联设备以及不同行业的动员。5G的商业环境也可能以新型客户和合作伙伴关系为特征。最后，作为5G进一步经济研究的一个例子，我们为未来5G网络的规划提供了一个投资组合理论模型。在这个模型中，我们展示了如何应用组合优化来解决以下问题：移动网络运营商如何选择一个最佳的可用连接组合来提供给客户，为与客户服务需求相关的网络流量提供必要的连接，同时也满足了他们的质量要求。在移动网络中应用投资组合理论来分配流量并不是什么新鲜事。我们的主要贡献是将体验质量纳入到这种模型中，使该模型对于5G移动网络的规划是可行的。

In this thesis, we study the economicaspects of the next generation of mobile networks, the fifth generation (5G).Mobile networking is an interesting topic, as telecommunication is anindispensable part of the infrastructure in our society, both today and in thefuture. 5G is needed as the existing 4G networks do not have enough capacity tohandle the future amounts of mobile data traffic. It is important to understandthe economic aspects of 5G, to ensure that the next generation of mobilenetworks will be economically sustainable. Although 5G still is a few yearsaway from being commercially deployed, now is a good time to start addressingcertain economic aspects. For instance, it is wise to begin the considerationsof the cost aspect of the future networks early, while the enablingtechnologies are still under research and development, and before 5G isstandardized. This is especially important for the mobile network operators,who provide the infrastructure. Similarly, the business potential of 5G is ofinterest for all actors that intend to generate revenues related to 5G. Someexamples of these actors are service providers, content providers, companiesselling telecommunication equipment (hardware), and again, the mobile networkoperators. The three overall objectives of this thesis are to explain how 5G iscurrently defined, identify the most important economic aspects of 5G, andformulate an optimization planning problem for a mobile network operatoroperating in the 5G context, by using portfolio theory. Our main intention isto provide an overview that can be used as a starting point for further studiesof 5G economics. First, using existing literature about 5G as a starting point,we explore how 5G currently is defined, and how the recent literature addressits economic and business related aspects. 5G is not standardized yet, but theliterature shows that most actors and stakeholders agree on both the use casesand the actual requirements for 5G. We see that until now, most of the 5Gliterature is concerned with proposing technologies to be included in 5G, sothat 5G can meet the requirements. Heterogeneous networks, device-to-devicecommunication, software-defined networking, network function virtualization,cognitive radio, transmission over the millimeter frequency bands, advancedmultiple-input multiple-output techniques and software-defined radios areexamples of important technologies that are likely to characterize 5G. Animportant finding is that there has not been conducted much dedicated researchon the economic aspects of 5G yet. However, there are a few articles dedicatedto this field, which are studying the profitability of proposed newtechnologies: device-to-device communication and the 5G heterogeneous networks.Certain economic aspects are also mentioned in technology-orientedpublications, such as the increasing expenses the mobile network operatorsface, and the need for these costs to be at a reasonable level in the future.Cloud concepts with software-based implementations and virtualizationtechnologies are described as promising solutions for the cost issues, alongwith lowered cell costs in the 5G heterogeneous networks. If the costs ofdeploying and operating base stations are lowered, the decision of deployingnew base stations in rural areas will be easier to make. This have directimpact on socio-economic development, for which connectivity is an importantenabler. Further, there is a certain focus on green aspects in the literature,especially in terms of power consumption in the base stations. Theseconsiderations are also directly relevant for the economic context of 5G.Regarding the 5G business perspective, we see that the improved networkperformance in 5G is likely to open up new business opportunities. In additionto an improved userexperience for existing services, new opportunities arisefrom applications that are first enabled when the network delay is minimizedand the reliability is increased. This includes mission criticalcommunications, a huge number of connected devices arising from the Internet ofThings, and mobilization of different industries. The business context of 5Gmay also be characterized by new types of customers and partnerships. Finally,as an example for further economic research of 5G, we provide a portfoliotheory model for the planning of future 5G networks. In this model we show howportfolio optimization can be applied to formulate the following problem: How amobile network operator can select an optimal portfolio of availableconnections to offer to its customers, to provide the necessary connections forthe network traffic related to the customers’ service demands, while alsomeeting their quality demands. The application of portfolio theory to allocatetraffic in a mobile network is not novel. Our main contribution is to includethe Quality of Experience aspect in this type of model, to make the modelfeasible for the planning of 5G mobile networks.

1. 引言

2. 文献回顾

3. 讨论

4. 问题规划与数学模型

5. 结论与展望

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