狼终于来了!  国际社会有充分的心理预期

黄安年文  黄安年的博客/2015年12月17日发布

嚷嚷了整整一年的美国温和加息，终于在昨晚的美东时间宣布了，这是几近十年来的头一回，由于一再叫嚷狼要来,结果没有来,这次终于来了,国际社会已经有了较为充分的心理准备,所以对金融市场不至于有太大冲击,更不可能导致连锁反应的加息潮。

美国是个市场经济相当成熟的国家,她通过一再推迟加息实现利益最大化,如果现在再不加息就可能再次伤失一次最佳时机。美国老百姓盼望加息主要来自心理层面，似乎加息意味着结束并最终摆脱了2008年金融危机的阴影，然而加息后美国的数字能否证明还是个未知书,原因在于影响的因素不光是美国,还有全球的经济状况。美联储很聪明,但中国的金融管理层也不笨，搞货币战的结果可能谁也不能独善其身。

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美国联邦公开市场委员会12月16日会议声明全文(中英)

2015年12月17日 04:17
来源：凤凰国际iMarkets

自联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC) 10月份会议以来收到的信息显示，经济活动在以温和步伐扩张。居民开支和商业固定投资最近几个月在以稳固速度增长，住宅领域进一步好转。

以下是美联储周三在华盛顿发布的政策声明全文：

自联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC) 10月份会议以来收到的信息显示，经济活动在以温和步伐扩张。居民开支和商业固定投资最近几个月在以稳固速度增长，住宅领域进一步好转；然而，净出口一直疲软。近期一系列劳动力市场指标，包括就业持续增长和失业率下降，显示出进一步的改善，确认了劳动力资源利用不足的情况自年初以来显著消减。通胀继续低于委员会2%的长期目标，在部分程度上反映了能源价格以及非能源进口产品价格的下跌。基于市场的通胀补偿指标保持低位；一些基于调查的长期通胀预期指标轻微下降。

为履行其法定职责，委员会寻求促进充分就业并保持物价稳定。委员会目前预计，随着货币政策立场渐进调整，经济活动将继续以温和步伐扩张，劳动力市场指标会继续走强。总体而言，将国内和国际局势发展纳入考量之后，委员会认为，经济活动以及劳动力市场展望面临的风险均衡。随着能源与进口产品价格下跌的临时影响消退，以及劳动力市场进一步好转，通胀预计将在中期内升至2%。委员会将继续密切监测通胀动态。

委员会认为，劳动力市场形势今年已经显著改善，并有合理信心认为通胀将在中期内升至2%的目标。鉴于经济展望，以及认识到政策行动影响到未来经济表现所需要的时间，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间上调至0.25%-0.5%。货币政策立场在此次加息之后将继续保持宽松，因此支持劳动力市场形势进一步好转以及通胀回归2%。

在确定联邦基金利率目标区间未来调整的时机和幅度方面，委员会将评估已实现的经济形势和预期的经济形势朝其充分就业以及2%通胀目标发展的情况。这方面的评估将考虑广泛的一系列信息，包括衡量劳动力市场状况的指标、通胀压力与通胀预期指标以及金融和国际动态方面的数据。鉴于当前通胀低于2%，委员会将密切关注向通胀目标的实际和预期进展。委员会预计，经济形势演变将使其有理由仅以渐进方式上调联邦基金利率；联邦基金利率可能在一段时间内继续低于预期中的长期水平。不过，联邦基金利率的实际路径将取决于未来数据所显示出的经济前景。

委员会维持这一现有政策：将所持机构债券与机构抵押贷款支持证券的到期本金再投资到机构抵押贷款支持证券，并在标售时将到期国债展期，直至联邦基金利率的正常化进程已经进行了相当长一段时间。这一政策通过将委员会所持长期证券维持在可观水平，应该会有助于保持宽松的金融状况。

投票支持联邦公开市场委员会本次货币政策行动的成员为：主席珍妮特· 耶伦、副主席威廉姆·杜德利、Lael Brainard、Charles L.

Evans、Stanley Fischer、Jeffrey M. Lacker、Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell;Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams。

原文

Release Date: December 16, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal OpenMarket Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has beenexpanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investmenthave been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sectorhas improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of recentlabor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and decliningunemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization oflabor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation hascontinued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflectingdeclines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-basedmeasures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures oflonger-term inflation expectations have edged down.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, theCommittee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committeecurrently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetarypolicy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labormarket indicators will continue to strengthen. Overall, taking into accountdomestic and international developments, the Committee sees the risks to theoutlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced. Inflationis expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effectsof declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor marketstrengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developmentsclosely.

The Committee judges that there has beenconsiderable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it isreasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time ittakes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committeedecided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after thisincrease, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions anda return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size offuture adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, theCommittee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to itsobjectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment willtake into account a wide range of information, including measures of labormarket conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflationexpectations, and readings on financial and international developments. Inlight of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee willcarefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. TheCommittee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that willwarrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal fundsrate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected toprevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds ratewill depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existingpolicy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt andagency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and ofrolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doingso until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well underway. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securitiesat sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy actionwere: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard;Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart;Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

Implementation Note issued December 16,2015

2015Monetary Policy Releases

美联储主席耶伦回答：为何现在加息 为何25个基点

2015年12月17日 03:31
来源：凤凰国际iMarkets

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周三(12月16日)美联储公布宣布升息25基点，至0.25%-0.5%。联储主席在决议后的新闻发布会发表演讲，解[详细]

周三(12月16日)美联储公布宣布升息25基点，至0.25%-0.5%。由此美联储结束了长达7年的零利率政策，同时也是9年来首次加息。

周三(12月16日)美联储公布宣布升息25基点，至0.25%-0.5%。由此美联储结束了长达7年的零利率政策，同时也是9年来首次加息。

在随后的新闻发布会中美联储主席耶伦表示，美联储行动标志着超宽松时期的结束。

耶伦表示，推迟加息太久可能导致突然紧缩的风险，政策立场依然维持宽松。以历史标准衡量，中性联邦基金利率水平较低。

耶伦称，今天只加了25个基点，中性利率不是政策目标，但这是一个有用的基准。政策有滞后效应，将循序渐进操作。零利率意味着应对负面冲击的余地减小。

耶伦并称，将谨慎观察利率对金融条件的影响。

耶伦还称美联储行动表明经济取得可观的进展，利率正常化之路将会是循序渐进的。

就业市场显然出现进一步改善，5%的失业率接近更长周期的中值水平，薪资涨幅仍然需要持续的回暖。劳动力市场仍然存在进一步改善的空间。

净出口一直受到美元和海外增速的限制；美国新股营建活动仍然偏低；商业投资已经出现坚固的增长；随着循序渐进地调整利率政策，美国经济料将出现温和增长。

http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20151217/14126985_0.shtml